IMF tips Australia for biggest unemployment rise in developed world

An IMF outlook reported by 1News projects Australia's unemployment rising from an average of 4.4% this year to 4.7% in 2027, while New Zealand's higher 5.4% rate is expected to drop to 5.1% next year.

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Australia is on track to record the largest rise in unemployment in the developed world, according to new projections in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) global outlook, 1News reports. The IMF found most economies have withstood turbulence from the past six months, while Australia was an outlier.

Australia's unemployment is forecast to rise from an average of 4.4% this year to 4.7% in 2027, with around 100,000 jobs at risk, according to the 1News report. New Zealand's current unemployment is higher, at 5.4%, but the report showed it is expected to drop to 5.1% next year.

1News reports that the projections suggest the brain drain to Australia is slowing. Stats NZ's provisional estimates show a net migration loss of 27,900 people to Australia in the year ended March 2026, compared with 31,100 in the March 2025 year. Stats NZ revises its provisional migration estimates each month.

"We have a global economy that has been very resilient but we may be reaching the limits of some of that resilience," IMF Research Deputy Director Petya Koeva Brooks said. The IMF predicted artificial intelligence would be the main disruptor on global economies, and Brooks said a fairly small number of countries are benefiting from the AI-related boom.

In Australia, a joint parliamentary committee on AI called for immediate investment and the relaxing of copyright laws, allowing Australian AI companies to train models on both local and international content, 1News reports.

Craig Pollard, a New Zealander who has lived in Australia for the last 17 years, told 1News the job market is getting tougher for him and his children. He said there are many casual positions but not many full-time ones, and that new technology worries him as he tries to get his children into positions where they can grow.

For Filipinos in New Zealand and Australia weighing jobs or a move across the Tasman, it may help to keep in mind that these figures are forecasts and provisional estimates, not confirmed job losses or final migration numbers.