NZ Coalition Splits on Immigration as Migrant Arrivals Fall

New Zealand's coalition government is divided over immigration ahead of the 2026 election, as arrivals drop sharply and departures rise. The National Party is pushing new residency pathways for skilled migrants, while New Zealand First adopts increasingly anti-immigration rhetoric.

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New Zealand's governing coalition is increasingly at odds over immigration as the country heads toward the 2026 election, according to an analysis by Massey University's Paul Spoonley published on East Asia Forum. Migrant arrivals have fallen sharply from their post-COVID peak: after a record 249,500 permanent and long-term arrivals and a net gain of 127,400 in 2023, provisional figures for the year to June 2026 show arrivals at 130,700 and a net gain of just 17,600.

The decline reflects both a soft New Zealand labour market, with unemployment at 5.6 per cent and underutilisation at 13.8 per cent, and the pull of a stronger Australian labour market offering higher wages. Departures of New Zealand citizens have risen from 0.44 per cent of the population in 2021 to 1.35 per cent in 2025, though the rate remains below historic peaks.

The coalition's divisions are widening. The dominant National Party and ACT have been largely pro-immigration, while New Zealand First, founded on an anti-immigrant platform, has adopted what it calls a 'nationalist' position, opposing 'mass immigration' and at times using inflammatory language about Asian migrants. Coalition agreements after the 2023 election were initially restrained, with New Zealand First seeking Accredited Employer Work Visa improvements and a focus on preventing migrant exploitation, according to the analysis.

For Filipino workers and employers, the policy direction matters. Immigration Minister Erica Stanford's cabinet papers show a work programme pursuing new residency pathways to attract and retain skilled workers, alongside changes to the Accredited Employer Work Visa that affect employers hiring migrant staff. Kislap infers that Filipino workers on employer-sponsored visas and Filipino-owned businesses hiring migrant labour in New Zealand should watch the pre-election divergence closely, as coalition positioning could shape visa settings after the vote.